CI Pro-FIT Note Update: December 30th 2005
Underlying Mutual Fund Index
As of December 30th 2005, the underlying mutual fund index was at 1211.23. This represents a 21.11% index increase for Series 1 and 23.25% index increase for Series 2
(both since inception).
Notes' NAV (gross of sales charges)
The NAVs for those two notes are 110.76 (up 10.76%) and 112.54 (up 12.54%) respectively.
Performance difference: how is it explained?
As a result of the principal protection feature they offer, these notes
are not direct investments in the underlying mutual funds. A substantial part
of the notes is initially invested in instruments providing the protection of
capital. The remainder is spent to replicate the return of the mutual funds.
This generally implies that the return on the notes will be paid on specific
dates. These two notes can pay either at mid-point (if called) or at maturity
(if not called).
The difference between the notes' performance and the underlying index performance is derived from the 2 points presented above. An easy way to understand it is to analyze the current index performance in light of when the note is supposed to pay a return. For example, Series 1 has an underlying index performance of 21.11%. Given that performance, the market evaluates today the probability that the note will pay a positive return at year 4 or year 8. Hence, the NAV is a mere reflection of what the market thinks the note will pay at mid-point or at maturity.
In other words, as of today and given current probabilities, the market evaluates that the current value of what it expects the notes to pay is 10.76% above initial capital. Those probabilities can change and are dependent on several factors, including the performance and volatility of the underlying funds and the level of interest rates.
Future performance: how will the notes behave?
The 2 main components of these notes are principal protection and mutual fund exposure. Generally speaking, increasing rates will have a tendency to hurt the value of these notes because they reduce the current value of the protected capital at maturity (the current value of $100 at 4% rates is higher than that at 6% rates). As for the market performance, while it is obvious that increasing mutual fund performance will help this note, the investors must keep in mind that the market will also evaluate the probability of payment at year 4 or year 8, which will influence the tracking distance between the mutual fund and the note.
Laurent L. Ferreira - Nicolas G. Patard - François Rivard - Isabelle Paquet / Tél. : 514-394-8561 - Fax : 514-397-5836
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